22 toss-up House races to watch on election night

Election Day is here, and tens of millions of Americans are now heading to the polls across the country.

Their votes will be the deciding factor in 22 toss-up House races that will determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the chamber for the next two years.

Beneath the surface, the battle for the gavel is getting more expensive. House candidates have spent more than $3 billion on their races so far, concentrated in roughly 40 battleground districts.

Fox News Power Rankings House table. (Fox News)

Arizona

Arizona’s 1st District covers a northeast chunk of Maricopa and is represented by Republican Rep. David Schweikert, who has served Arizona in Congress since 2011. Biden won the area he represents by 1.5 points in the last presidential election (Dave’s Redistricting), making this an ultra-competitive race. Schweikert is up against Democrat and former state Rep. Amish Shah. It’s a Toss-up on the Power Rankings.

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Arizona’s 6th District is tucked away in the southeast corner of the state. The 6th District is represented by freshman GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani. Biden won this area by an even thinner margin in 2020 — just 0.1 percentage points — making it another closely watched race. Ciscomani is running against Kirsten Engel, another Democratic former state representative. It’s also a Toss-up.

California

California’s 22nd District is home to Rep. David Valadao, one of two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021. He kept this district on a three-point margin in the midterms, but Biden won it by 13 points in the last presidential election. Valadao’s strong centrist brand keeps this race, against former assemblyman Rudy Salas, at Toss Up this cycle.

California’s 41st District is represented by Republican Ken Calvert, who has served in the House since 1993. He won his most recent race by under five points, and this year, he’ll face the same competitor: former federal prosecutor and Democrat Will Rollins. This race is a Toss Up.

California’s 45th District went to President Biden by six points last cycle; its heavy and right-leaning Asian American population makes it highly competitive. Incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel faces Democratic lawyer Derek Tran in this district, which includes parts of Los Angeles. It moved to Toss Up last month.

Fox News Power Rankings House battleground shifts.

Colorado

Colorado’s 8th District starts in rural Weld County, where Trump won by 18 points in 2020. But the farther down you go, the more suburban it becomes. Strong Democratic turnout in Adams County, which Biden won by 16 points, gave Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo her first win in 2022. This time, the incumbent is up against Republican state politician Gabe Evans. This is a toss-up race.

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Iowa

Iowa’s 1st District went to second-term GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks by six votes in 2020, and while redistricting gave her a more comfortable win in the midterms, she remains vulnerable in the Davenport and Iowa City district. Former state Rep. Christina Bohannan is the Democrat candidate. It’s a toss-up in the Power Rankings.

Maine

Maine’s 2nd District sees Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden running as one of five Democrats in districts Trump won in the last presidential election (Golden won by 6 points). The former Marine made headlines this year when he said he “didn’t know” whether he would vote for Biden again and was one of the first Democrats to question Biden’s mental fitness. This time, he’s up against Maine State Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault, who says he wants “more balance and less extremism” in politics. This race is a Power Rankings toss-up.

Michigan

Michigan’s 7th District sees Democrat Elissa Slotkin vacating this south central Michigan district, which she flipped by a 5.4-point margin in the midterms. This year, it’s a battle between two former state senators — Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett. This race is a toss-up on the Fox News Power Rankings.

Michigan’s 8th District is also without an incumbent. Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring after 12 years in the House, making this a race between Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican businessman Paul Junge. The seat includes Flint and the Tri-Cities area, so winning the working-class vote will be critical. It’s also a toss-up on the Power Rankings.

North Carolina

North Carolina’s 1st District saw Democratic Rep. Don Davis win this open seat in the midterms by under five points. This year, he’s up against Army veteran Laurie Buckhout for this northeastern district with a high proportion of Black voters. This race is a toss-up on the Fox News Power Rankings.

More Fox News Power Rankings House shifts.

Nebraska

Nebraska’s 2nd District sees incumbent Republican Rep. Don Bacon defending his seat against Nebraska state legislator Tony Vargas. Bacon won his seat from a Democrat in 2016, and he has since won every election by less than 3 points.

New Mexico

New Mexico’s 2nd District occupies most of the southwest land area of the state. It includes Las Cruces and parts of Albuquerque, but it also has a chunk of rural votes. Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez won the district by just 1,350 votes in the midterms; this year, he faces the seat’s former Republican occupant, Yvette Herrell. This is a Power Rankings toss-up.

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New York

New York’s 4th District lies closer to New York City and includes the ultra-competitive Nassau County. The county is comprised of Long Beach, Garden City and Uniondale, where former President Trump held a rally last month. Incumbent Rep. Anthony D’Esposito spoke at that event. He’s up against local Democratic Town Supervisor Laura Gillen. It’s ranked toss-up on the Power Rankings.

New York’s 19th District is the third Hudson Valley battleground with a moderate incumbent. The 19th District includes the Catskills and the Finger Lakes. GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro flipped this seat in the midterms with a roughly 5,000-vote margin. This year, he faces Democratic attorney Josh Riley. This race is a toss-up.

Ohio

Ohio’s 9th District lies in northwestern Ohio, and the seat has been held by populist Democrat Rep. Marcy Kaptur since 1983, but her margins have shrunk as Ohio has drifted right. She faces conservative Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin on the ballot this year; it’s another Power Rankings toss-up.

Ohio’s 13th District includes Youngstown and parts of Akron; it has been represented by Democrat Rep. Emilia Sykes since 2023. Sykes faces Republican former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin this year. It’s also a toss-up.

Fox News Power Rankings House forecast. (Fox News)

Oregon

Oregon’s 5th District ranges from parts of Portland out to the Cascades. GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer flipped this race in the midterms after Democrats booted out their incumbent moderate Democrat in a primary, but it’s a razor-thin race in 2024. The Democratic challenger this time around is state Rep. Janelle Bynum. It’s another Power Rankings Toss Up.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania’s 8th District has seen longtime Democrat Rep. Matt Cartwright serve the district for more than a decade. His margins have also shrunk over a decade of elections and through redistricting, down to 2.4 points in the last cycle. Cartwright’s opponent is local businessman and Republican Rob Bresnahan. The district includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. This race is also a Power Rankings Toss Up.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District: sees rural voters in Cumberland and York counties give Republican Rep. Scott Perry the edge. He has represented the region since 2013. Perry won by 7.6 points in the midterms, but Democrats hope that Perry’s deep ties to the MAGA movement will make their candidate, former local news anchor Janelle Stelson, competitive. This race is ranked Leans GOP.

Virginia

Virginia’s 7th District is more competitive than ever. Democrats have fielded Eugene Vindman, a Navy veteran, while Republicans are looking for a flip with attorney Derrick Anderson. 

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The campaign has been marked by mini-scandals on both sides, but Vindman does not have the strong centrist brand that retiring Democrat Abigail Spanberger built. This district moves from Lean D to Toss Up.

Washington

Washington’s 3rd District offers a rematch between first-term Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Blue Dog Democrat who recently suggested that President Biden resign from office, and Joe Kent, her Republican challenger. It is a Toss Up on the Power Rankings.