Biden tops Trump in new poll, but lead shrinks against third-party candidates

President Biden holds a six-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a likely November election rematch, a new national poll suggests.

But the Quinnipiac University survey released on Wednesday indicates that the president’s advantage over Trump shrinks in a multi-candidate general election field that also includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The poll also shows Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley topping Biden by five points in a hypothetical November showdown, but Biden with a slight edge over the former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador in a crowded field of contenders.

The survey also indicates that Biden and Trump are the overwhelming favorites to win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.

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President Biden speaks at the First in the Nation Celebration held by the South Carolina Democratic Party at the State Fairgrounds, Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024, in Columbia. (AP Photo/Artie Walker Jr.)

According to the poll, which was conducted Jan. 25-29, Biden leads Trump 50%-44% among registered voters nationwide, up from a razor-thin one-point edge in Quinnpiac’s December survey.

But a compilation by Real Clear Politics of all the most recent national surveys polling a Biden-Trump rematch indicates the former president with a 2.5-point margin over the White House incumbent.

The new Quinnipiac survey indicates Biden with a 96%-2% margin among Democrats and a 52%-40% advantage among independents, while Trump enjoyed 91%-7% support among Republicans.

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The survey also spotlights a widening gender gap, with women backing Biden 58%-36%, up 10 points from December, and men supporting Trump 53%-42%, which is mostly unchanged from last month.

“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said.

Former President Donald Trump delivers remarks alongside supporters, campaign staff and family members during his primary night rally on Jan. 23, 2024, in Nashua, New Hampshire. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

But Biden’s lead shrinks in a potential five-candidate November showdown.

The poll indicates the president at 39%, Trump with 37%, Democrat turned independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 14%, progressive independent candidate Cornell West 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2%.

Haley has repeatedly argued on the campaign trail that she would be a stronger GOP presidential nominee than Trump to face off with Biden in the general election, and the new poll gives Haley further ammunition.

She tops Biden 47%-42% in a hypothetical two-person November showdown, according to the poll.

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But in a five-candidate field, Biden stands at 36%, with Haley at 29%, Kennedy 21%, West 3%, and Stein 2%.

Trump, the commanding frontrunner for the GOP nomination as he makes his third straight White House run, won this month’s Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary – the first two contests in the Republican presidential nominating calendar – by double digits.

Nikki Haley speaks after results came in for the primary during a watch party in Concord, New Hampshire, on Jan. 23, 2024. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

Haley faces a steep uphill climb for the nomination as the race moves to her home state, which holds the next major contest in the GOP schedule on Feb. 24.

The poll indicates Trump crushing Haley 77%-21% among GOP and Republican-leaning voters.

In the Democratic presidential primary race, the president stands at 78% support, with author Marianne Williamson at 11% and Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota at 6%.

The Quinnipiac poll questioned 1,650 self-described registered voters nationwide, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

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