Conclave ‘very, very different’ from US elections; ‘anything could happen’, according to expert

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As the world pays their final respects to Pope Francis, men and women everywhere, including a new generation of faithful, wait in anticipation for the College of Cardinals to convene and select a new pope.

A conclave, organized by the camerlengo, presently Cardinal Kevin Ferrell, begins 15 to 20 days after the pope’s death.

“Anything could happen,” Tim Gabrielli, associate professor and Gudorf chair in Catholic intellectual traditions at the University of Dayton in Ohio, told Fox News Digital.

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Pope Francis was elected the 266th pope in 2013. (Gregorio Borgia/AP)

Pope Francis, the 266th pontiff, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, died on April 21, 2025, after 12 years as the Bishop of Rome.

“We really don’t have much of an idea,” he said of Pope Francis’ successor. “I think anybody who says otherwise is maybe posturing.”

Among the church leaders floated as the candidates-in-waiting are Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo and American Cardinal Raymond Burke.

“It’s helpful to remember that the cardinal electors are going to be, conclave means with key, locked away … away from media and influences,” Gabrielli said.

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The College of Cardinals will convene in order to vote and select the next leader of the Catholic Church. ((Photo by Riccardo De Luca/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images))

“We’ve got a group of people who play important roles in the church throughout the world, and they’re coming together, spending time together, and this group of cardinals hasn’t spent a lot of time together,” Gabrielli added.

Pope Francis created over 100 cardinals, including those from developing countries.

“Christ is to be found at the margins,” Gabrielli said.

During a conclave, cardinals vote through a secret ballot. A two-thirds majority is required for the election. After each round of submissions, ballots are read aloud and then burned. The ashes are used to notify audiences around the world and onlookers in St. Peter’s Square of the election’s status.

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The College of Cardinals meet at the Sistine Chapel in Rome to elect the next pope. (Arturo Mari, Vatican Pool)

Black smoke from the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican indicates a new round of voting is set to happen. White smoke signals a new leader of the Roman Catholic Church is selected.

The secret process, which takes as long as needed, is vastly different from U.S. presidential, local and even mayoral elections. However, the unique election process doesn’t prevent people from drawing comparisons between the most “papabile” cardinals and U.S. political parties–Republican and Democrat.

“It’s very tempting to map folks into our political categories,” Gabrielli said. “Those just don’t work very well in the Church. There are different emphases and priorities.”

“This is a very, very different process,” he added.

The College of Cardinals elected Pope Francis in 2013 when he was 76 years old. At the time, the former pontiff was not considered one of the top cardinal contenders.

Some Catholics regarded the former leader of the Church as “non-traditional” and often criticized his sometimes progressive approach to world leadership.

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Pope Francis was 76 years old when he was elected. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)

During his 12-year papacy, Pope Francis’ took affinity to the expansion of equality in the Catholic Church, which included pathways for divorced Catholics and blessings for same-sex couples.

“My read is that he had certain particular processes and structures that he was very interested in setting into motion, like the work on synodality more recently,” Gabrielli said.

Pope Francis also drove conversation around climate change. His emphasis on environmental protection followed suit with Pope Benedict XVI and Pope John Paul II before him.

“He was kind of picking up that momentum,” Gabrielli said. “There’s really a thread you see happening there.”

Pope Francis died on April 21, 2025. (Andrew Medichini/AP)

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Presently, there are 252 living cardinals. However, only top members of the church under the age of 80 are eligible to vote. A maximum of 120 cardinal electors make up the voting college.

The limit was set by Pope John Paul VI in 1975.

“I think it’s possible that someone could be seen as close to Pope Francis,” Gabrielli said of the next pope. “I think it’s possible for someone to be elected who has a different set of priorities than Pope Francis.”

Gabriele Regalbuto is a Senior Editor of SEO at Fox News Digital. Gabriele has a Journalism and Communications degree from West Virginia University. She has worked to produce content for newspapers, magazines, and digital platforms. At Fox, she has assisted in coverage of breaking news events including the 2024 presidential cycle, 2022 midterm elections, Queen Elizabeth II’s death, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.