Early mail-in voting data signals good news for GOP, Trump: expert

Vote-by-mail data in three key states shows the edge Democrats enjoyed in 2020 has plummeted, something one expert said is a great sign for Republicans and former President Donald Trump.

“It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote,” Jimmy Keady, the founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, told Fox News Digital. 

The comments come as the Democratic edge in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk significantly in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to data by Decision Desk HQ, signaling a shift in voter habits that have defined the last two elections.

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Former President Donald Trump attends a town hall meeting moderated by Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders at the Dort Financial Center in Flint, Michigan, on Sept. 17, 2024. (JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)

According to the data, the Democratic lead in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk by over 5% in Florida, nearly 15% in North Carolina and over 35% in Pennsylvania.

Getting voters out to early in-person voting or to vote by mail can free up resources for campaigns, Keady said, allowing them to focus their attention on lower propensity voters who often play a big role in deciding elections.

“I’m sure voters complain all the time about text messages, about getting mail, about getting robocalls to go vote,” Keady said. “Campaigns are now sophisticated enough that once you go vote, those stop… once a voter goes to vote, and those stop, that allows resource allocation from that voter to another voter.”

Getting those lower propensity voters out could play a huge role in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which are both expected to once again be swing states with razor-tight margins.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Leadership Conference, at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

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Vice President Kamala Harris holds a lead of less than a point in Pennsylvania, while Trump holds a similarly sized lead in North Carolina, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, meaning the ground game to turn out voters on each side could be the deciding factor in the election.

The Democratic advantage in mail-in and early voting very well might have been the difference in the 2020 election, but Keady sees shifting momentum for the GOP on that front in 2024.

“It definitely signals that A, there’s turnout… but B, also that the base has adopted, kind of being able to accept that early voting is a proper and mostly secure way to vote,” Keady said.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a rally on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024 in Uniondale, New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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That will help Republicans compete with Democrats in an area the party was at a decided disadvantage in 2020, Keady noted, something that could swing another close election in the GOP’s favor.

“As Republicans, we have to start getting the base to early vote, to do mail-in ballot, to do these things that we know are safe and secure, to get people out to the polls,” The Democrats have done this really well, for years.”

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.