Harris-Trump showdown: New poll indicates who has edge in most important battleground

PITTSBURGH, PA – A new public opinion poll indicates Vice President Kamala Harris holding the edge over former President Trump in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania.

Forty-eight percent of those questioned in Monmouth University survey of registered Pennsylvania voters released on Wednesday said they are definitely or probably supporting Harris in the presidential election, with 45% saying the same thing about Trump.

And the poll, conducted Sept. 19-23, indicates Harris holding a four-point advantage over Trump among those who said they are extremely motivated to cast a ballot in the White House race.

The survey is the latest to indicate a close contest in Pennsylvania, which, with 19 electoral votes up for grabs, is the biggest prize among the seven key battleground states whose razor-thin margins decided President Biden’s 2020 election victory over Trump and will likely determine whether Harris or Trump succeeds Biden in the White House.

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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at IBEW Local Union #5 on Sept. 2, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, makes up the Democrats’ so-called “blue wall,” which the party reliably won for a quarter-century in presidential elections until Trump narrowly carried all three states in his 2016 White House victory. But Biden – with razor-thin margins – won back all three states four years ago.

Both Harris and Trump have repeatedly made stops this summer in Pennsylvania. And while the campaigns and their allied super PACs are pouring resources into all seven swing states, more money has been spent to run spots in Pennsylvania than any of the other battlegrounds. And both sides have dished out more dollars to reserve airtime going forward in the Keystone State than any of the other swing states, according to figures from AdImpact, a top national ad tracking firm.

The release of the poll comes a couple of hours before Harris returns to Pennsylvania – which is considered a must-win state for the Democratic presidential nominee – to deliver what her campaign is billing as a major speech on the economy.

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The vice president, at her address at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, is expected to offer up the most substantial comments on the economy since replacing Biden atop the Democrats’ 2024 ticker just over two months ago.

A senior Harris campaign official said the vice president will spotlight her “pragmatic” approach to the economy and will offer up “practical, realistic solutions.”

The official added that Harris – who has been derided by Trump as “Comrade Kamala” – will describe herself as “a capitalist” who “understands the limitations of government and has always sought to take good ideas from wherever they come and harness the power of innovation.”

Former President Trump speaks about the tax code and manufacturing at the Johnny Mercer Theater Civic Center, on Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, in Savannah, Georgia. (AP/Evan Vucci)

Her address comes a day after the former president, in a speech in battleground Georgia, gave what was also billed a major economic speech, vowing to lower taxes on U.S.-based manufacturers.

With less than six weeks to go until Election Day on Nov. 5 and with early in-person voting or absentee balloting underway in nearly two dozen states, just about every poll indicates that the economy remains the top issue on the minds of Americans.

This, as the nation’s economic recovery from the pandemic-inflicted recession continues and inflation remains a leading concern among voters.

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When it comes to which presidential candidate can better handle the economy, Trump continues to have the edge – but his margins over Harris differ dramatically depending on the poll.

The former president’s up 13 points over the vice president in a post-debate survey from the New York Times and Siena College, and favored by seven points in an ABC News Ipsos survey also conducted after the showdown.

But Trump’s advantage over Harris on the economy stands at only five points in the latest Fox News poll, and just two points in an AP/NORC survey.

In Pennsylvania, the new Monmouth University survey indicates Trump holding a three-point edge over Harris when respondents were asked which candidate is more trusted to handle the economy.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump shake hands at their debate in Philadelphia on Sept. 10, 2024. (Doug Mills/The New York Time/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Harris, according to the senior campaign aide, is expected in her speech to premiere some new manufacturing proposals and highlight her ideas to lower costs, invest in American innovation and entrepreneurship, and her goal of “leading the world in the industries of the future.”

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The senior official added that Harris is expected to argue that “for Donald Trump, our economy works best if it works for those who own the big skyscrapers. Not those who build them. Not those who wire them. Not those who mop the floors.”

And that she will reiterate her charge that Trump has “no intention to grow the middle class, because all he cares about is helping himself and billionaires like him.”

Trump has repeatedly charged that Harris’ plans for the economy are inept and potentially dangerous.

“If you think four years of Harris-Biden is bad, that’s nothing compared to four years of Harris-Walz,” the Trump campaign has argued.

Fox News’ Mark Meredith contributed to this report

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