Jon Tester campaign admits ‘hard truth’ Senate race will be expensive and close

Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s campaign ceded on Tuesday that it faces a significant challenge in trying to hold onto his Senate seat in the two-time, Trump-won state come November. 

“As we enter the general election, it’s clear Montana’s U.S. Senate race will be the most competitive in the country in 2024,” wrote campaign manager Shelbi Dantic in a memo following the Montana Senate primaries. 

Tester won the Democratic nod, while former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy officially received the Republican nomination as expected. 

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U.S. Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) speaks to reporters as he walks through the Capitol Building on February 05, 2024 in Washington, DC.  (Anna Moneymaker)

The Montana Senate race is considered one of the most competitive races in the country in the 2024 elections, with non-partisan political handicapper the Cook Political Report labeling it as one of three “Toss Up” Senate matches. The blue lawmaker in a red state is at serious risk, particularly as Democrats contend with several other tough races to spend money on. 

If Sheehy manages to unseat Tester in November, it could help Republicans take back the majority in the upper chamber. 

“Here’s the hard truth: This will be an expensive and close race,” Dantic explained. 

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Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Montana Senate candidate Tim Sheehy (Kevin Dietsch/Louise Johns)

She blamed the skyrocketing cost of winning in Big Sky Country on “a tidal wave of outside spending and super PAC interference.”

“And like all of Jon’s races, Montana’s Senate election will likely be decided by just a few thousand votes,” Dantic added, laying out expectations for election margins. 

Tester’s campaign manager is confident he will win, nonetheless. According to Dantic, the organization and grassroots coalition necessary to pull off a victory will work in his favor. Dantic claimed Tester’s supporters include “Republicans, independents, veterans, Native Americans, women, rural voters, young voters, and seniors across the state.”

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The Montana Senate race is considered one of the most competitive races in the country in the 2024 elections. (Education Images/Universal Images Group)

Following his easy primary win Tuesday, Sheehy said in a statement, “America is at a crossroads, and we need a new generation of leaders to save our country.”

“I am humbled and honored by all the support and look forward to finally retiring the #1 recipient of lobbyist cash and pro-Biden liberal Jon Tester,” he added. 

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Former President Donald Trump and NRSC Chairman Steve Daines of Montana.  (Getty Images)

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National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman and Republican Montana Sen. Steve Daines said in a Tuesday statement, “The clearest path to a Republican Senate majority runs through Montana. Tim Sheehy will deliver a Senate majority for President Trump, Jon Tester wants to deliver a Senate majority for Joe Biden. That is the choice in this election. President Trump is counting on Montana to elect Tim Sheehy.”

Conservative PAC the Sentinel Action Fund delivered another win for Sheehy on Wednesday, officially endorsing him and launching a seven-figure early and absentee voting initiative in the state. 

Jessica Anderson, President of the Sentinel Action Fund, announced in a statement, “The Sentinel Action Fund is thrilled to endorse Tim Sheehy for U.S. Senate in Montana, and we are committed to using our robust election infrastructure and SkipTheLineMT.vote to turn out voters for Sheehy through absentee vote-by-mail, ballot harvesting, and ballot chasing.”