Montana Senate race, which could determine majority, seeing ‘intense ground game operation’: NRSC Chairman

EXCLUSIVE: Montana’s U.S. Senate race has one of the most “intense” ground games of the 2024 cycle with the chamber majority hanging in the balance, according to the chairman of the Republican campaign arm. 

Sen. Steve Daines is spearheading Republican efforts to take control of the Senate as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), with a heightened emphasis on ousting a three-term Democrat in red state Montana.

Daines exclusively told Fox News Digital the Montana Senate race pitting Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy against three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester features one of the strongest ground game efforts from the GOP he has witnessed in the state.

“I’ve watched a lot of Montana Senate races, House races, governor races over the years. This is the most intense ground game operation and the most far-reaching that I’ve seen in many election cycles,” Daines told Fox News Digital. “It’s a door-to-door type of persuasion, as well as a lot of phoning, a lot of digital. So, it’s a really strong ground game, knowing that I think well-run ground games win elections.”

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Montana Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, left, and Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., listen as former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, speaks at the Brick Breeden Fieldhouse at Montana State University Aug. 9, 2024, in Bozeman, Mont. (Michael Ciaglo)

The New York Times recently reported that Sheehy is leading Tester by eight percentage points, but Daines emphasized that while the Republican candidate remains ahead in several polls, they are going to continue energizing their get-out-the-vote efforts until Election Day.

“It’s a very aggressive, active time with just a little over 2½ weeks until the election focused on voter turnout and ground game operations, as well as continuing to have the sufficient resources,” Daines said. “Get the message out to those few undecided voters that are left, whether it’s through television, radio, digital mail. So, we’re not letting up. You keep working hard all the way until Election Day.”

The Montana race figures to be the most expensive Senate race on a per-vote basis, which Daines attributes to its high stakes.

“This is what secures the majority for the Republicans and takes the gavel out of Chuck Schumer’s hands,” he told Fox. “And that’s why there’s so much focused attention on this race.”

Senators Jon Tester, D-Mont., left, and Steve Daines, R-Mont., film a message outside Dirksen Building on the importance of getting a COVID-19 vaccine April 27, 2021.  (Tom Williams)

In early September, two political forecasters shifted the Montana race from a toss-up to “leans Republican,” along with AARP and the NYT surveys showing the Republican leading the race against the three-term Democrat.

A visit to Bozeman by former President Trump in August, who endorsed Sheehy earlier this year, contributed to the recent polling shift in the Republican candidate’s favor, according to the chairman.

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The electorate in Montana has shifted toward the GOP over the years, and Tester remains the only Democrat to hold a statewide office in the state.

“I think what’s happened is Montana, in terms of their voting and their thinking, has moved a bit more. But the biggest problem for the Democrats is they’ve moved so far left. This is not the same Democrat Party that I grew up with here in Montana,” Daines said of the red wave in the state.

Tim Sheehy, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senator, speaks at a rally supporting former President Trump, the Republican presidential candidate in Bozeman, Mont., Aug. 9, 2024.  (Natalie Behring)

Daines also highlighted the national implications of the Big Sky Senate race.

“This race is bigger than Montana, because this race indeed will decide the future of the United States Supreme Court, the future of the circuit courts,” Daines said. “There’s also the Trump tax cuts that expire in ’25, which would be a massive tax increase for Montana’s small businesses. 

“Jon Tester voted against that tax bill. I voted for it. Tim Sheehy would vote for that. So, there’s just a lot at stake, not only for Montana but for the nation. And, so, we here in Montana will probably be able to flip the majority control of the U.S. Senate with Tim Sheehy’s victory. And that has significant implications, not only for the great state of Montana, but for our great country.” 

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There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs this cycle, and Democrats are protecting 23 of them. The Senate majority stands at 51-50 with Democrats in the majority, meaning just a one seat flip could shift the majority to the Republican Party.