New poll indicates whether Harris or Trump is making gains with younger voters

A new poll indicates surging support among America’s youngest voters for Vice President Harris in her 2024 showdown against former President Trump.

Harris tops Trump by 31 points among people aged 18-29 likely to vote in the presidential election, according to a poll released Tuesday morning by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School.

That’s a dramatic switch from Harvard’s survey from this spring, which indicated President Biden topping Trump by just 13 points among likely youth voters.

The numbers in Harvard’s spring survey, as well as similar findings in other polls, raised alarms among Democrats, as younger voters have long been a key part of the party’s base. 

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Vice President Harris waves during a campaign rally in Madison, Wis., on Friday, Sept. 20, 2024. (Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Biden dropped his re-election bid in July in the wake of a disastrous debate performance against Trump, and Harris instantly enjoyed a wave of enthusiasm and momentum as she replaced her boss atop the Democrats’ 2024 ticket.

“This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch,” longtime IOP polling director John Della Volpe said. “Vice President Harris has strengthened the Democratic position among young voters, leading Trump on key issues and personal qualities.”

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Harris grabs the support of 61% of likely voters aged 18-29, according to the poll, with Trump at 30%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent Cornel West each stand at 1% support, with 6% undecided or refusing to answer.

The vice president’s lead over Trump exceeds the roughly 25-point victory by Biden over Trump among younger voters, according to a Fox News Voter Analysis of the 2020 presidential election.

The latest Fox News national poll, conducted this month, indicated Harris topping Trump by 17 points among voters under age 30.

Republican presidential nominee former President Trump arrives for a campaign rally at Wilmington International Airport, Sept. 21, 2024, in Wilmington, N.C. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The poll points to a number of factors fueling Harris’ very large margin over Trump.

Among them, a significant enthusiasm gap of nearly three-quarters of young Democrats saying they will “definitely” vote, compared to 6-in-10 Republicans, and a jump in Harris’ approval rating as vice president, from 32% in the spring to 44% now. Harris’ favorable rating now stands at plus five points, while Trump’s favorables are 30 points underwater.

Also boosting Harris: She outperforms Trump on key issues and personal qualities asked of both major party nominees in the survey.

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The poll also points to a boost for Harris from social media, highlighting that just over half of young voters questioned “encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception.”

The survey also spotlights a widening gender gap of 30 points, up from 17 points in the spring.

“While both men and women are moving toward Harris, the rate of female support eclipses male support,” the poll’s release notes.

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are shown during their presidential debate at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia on Sept. 10, 2024. (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

According to the survey, Harris holds a 53%-36% margin among likely male voters aged 18-29, but her lead surges to 70%-23% among likely female voters.

Pointing to his survey’s results, Della Volpe emphasized that “Gen Z and young millennials’ heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024.”

The survey by the Institute of Politics is Harvard’s 48th Youth Poll. Over the past quarter-century, Harvard University has become a leader in gauging young Americans’ political opinions and voting trends.

The latest edition of the poll was conducted Sept. 4-16 with 2,002 people 18-29 nationwide questioned. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.65 percentage points.

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