Ohio special election result could signal Democrat edge with key voter group: election expert

Tuesday’s special election in Ohio to fill a vacant U.S. House seat showed off a Democratic advantage in high-engagement voters, with the district swinging roughly 20 points in Democrats’ favor, compared to previous elections.

While Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli defeated his Democratic opponent Michael Kripchak by just under 10 points in the special election for Ohio’s Sixth Congressional District, it was a disappointing margin in a district that had been won by outgoing Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio., by more than 30 points just two years ago.

“It looks like state Sen. Michael Rulli (R) is on track for a significant underperformance in tonight’s #OH06 special election,” Cook Political Report Senior Editor Dave Wasserman said on X as the results rolled in, noting that former President Donald Trump had carried the same district by 29 points in 2020.

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Left: President Biden. Right: Former President Donald Trump. (Getty Images)

The result could be seen as a confusing one for many political observers, with Ohio as a state trending more towards Republicans in recent elections, and the Sixth Congressional District having been a safe haven for the GOP for over a decade.

But the result highlights a growing problem for Republicans nationally ahead of this year’s general election, Wasserman notes, pointing out that Democrats have a growing enthusiasm edge as November approaches.

“Turnout in #OH06 looks abysmal, and as we’ve seen in tons of specials/polls, Dems have a growing advantage w/ the highest-engagement voters,” Wasserman said on X.

Ohio State Sen. Michael Rulli. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Wasserman’s comments come on the heels of Cook Political Report’s “swing state polling project” conducted last month, which looked into the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and divided voters into three groups.

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The first group, whom the report called “high-engagement” voters, features those who “voted in all four of the past four federal elections or voted in the 2022 midterms if they registered after 2020.” The middle tier features voters whom the report called “low/mid-engagement” voters, or those who “skipped at least one of the past four federal elections.” The last group contained new registrants since 2020, which can include those that moved between states.

The report found a growing “participation gap” in presidential preferences, with President Biden holding a four point edge among “high engagement” voters, or those most likely to vote on election day. Trump, meanwhile, held a 10 point lead among “low-mid engagement” voters and newly registered voters.

Such a gap could play a role in tightly contested swing states, with “high-engagement voters” representing the majority of the electorate.

President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign event at Pullman Yards on March 9, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

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Ohio, which has traditionally been a swing state but was won comfortably by Trump in the last two elections, looks once again to be trending toward Trump in November. According to the latest Real Clear Politics Polling Average, the former president holds a 10-point lead on Biden in the state.