Russia’s Syria exit could help Ukraine-Israel relationship as analyst warns it ‘offers little’ to Jerusalem

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Assad regime’s collapse is a ‘loss’ for Russia, expert says

‘Fox News Sunday’ panelists Julia Manchester, Meghan Hays, Josh Kraushaar, and Marc Thiessen ponder the Trump administration’s approach to the Middle East following the Assad regimes downfall. 

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With the collapse of the Assad regime and Russia’s declining influence in Syria, some are saying that an opportunity for a rapprochement between Israel and Ukraine now exists, where it hadn’t before.

“Israel needs to be more involved in supporting Ukraine,” Yuli Edelstein, the chair of Israel’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Community and a member of the ruling Likud party, told Fox News Digital. “The situation has changed, it’s time for Israel to step up.”

Edelstein, a leading voice in Israel’s defense and foreign policy discussions, said “the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” adding, “We see a strategic alliance between the Russians and the Iranians. If before it was the great Russia adopting Iran, now it’s important to recognize that the balance of power has changed.”

“We’ve seen the importance of Iranian weapons, with an emphasis on missiles and drones, for the Russians,” Edelstein continued, “Therefore, Israel could have taken a much clearer stance, supporting Ukraine.”

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Russian army vehicles are seen retreating to Putin’s military base at the Khmeimim airbase, where military transport planes are being loaded. (East2West)

Israel has long navigated the delicate balance between its ties with Russia and Ukraine. Despite strong public support for Ukraine, Israel’s government has maintained a cautious approach, largely due to its complex relationship with Moscow. With Russia controlling key areas of Syrian airspace, Israel had to manage airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias and weapons convoys along the axis from Iran via Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon, all while avoiding provoking Russia.

With Russia backing both Iran and its proxy groups, Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevhen Korniychuk, who has been advocating for closer military cooperation and requesting military assistance from Israel, told Fox News Digital that Israel’s cautious stance toward Ukraine can no longer be justified. While Israel insists on providing only humanitarian and defensive aid, refraining from sending high-tech weaponry, Korniychuk emphasized the need for a shift in policy.

“Russia’s ties with Iran and its support for Hezbollah and Hamas make it clear Russia is no neutral player for Israel,” Korniychuk explained. “Now that Russia’s role in Syria is diminishing, Israel has no excuse – it should seize the opportunity to work more closely with Ukraine.”

The ambassador added, “Both our countries face the same threats. Israel has the expertise we need in air defense, and we have the experience in defending ourselves against Iranian drones. These drones are becoming a growing problem for both Ukraine and Israel.”

IRANIAN PROXIES STEPPING UP THEIR DRONE ATTACKS IN WAR WITH ISRAEL

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visit the Hmeymim air base in Syria Dec. 11, 2017. (Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/ via Reuters/File Photo)

Edelstein noted, “I’m not suggesting we should open a war with Russia. But when it comes to cooperation with the Ukrainians, the Israeli interest is a close cooperation in anything related to defense, especially regarding missiles and drones. Look at what’s happening in Israel,” he said referring to recent events, when Iranian drones were able to penetrate the airspace of Israel, which is protected by highly advanced systems like the Iron Dome and Arrow. 

However, against what is perceived as a simpler threat, a drone strike took the lives of four soldiers at an Israeli base. “If, together with the Ukrainians, two years ago we had entered the defense field when the problems began here, we could have been better prepared.”

An Israeli security official told Fox News Digital that while Israel is advancing its own technology to combat Iranian drones, it takes time. “The Iron Dome, for example, is crucial for air defense, but it wasn’t designed to handle mass drone attacks, which is a challenge both Israel and Ukraine are facing,” the official said. “Israel’s systems are effective against rockets, but drones are another story. Ukraine has become a testing ground for real combat conditions, and we missed the chance to take advantage of that.”

Syrians gather at Umayyad Square to celebrate the collapse of 61 years of Baath Party rule in Damascus on Dec. 9, 2024. (Murat Sengul/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Despite Israel’s cautious political rhetoric, intelligence collaboration between Israel and Ukraine has flourished. An Israeli government official speaking on background said, “The intelligence cooperation between Ukraine and Israel has been far more advanced than our political relations.” A Ukrainian official confirmed that, saying, “The intelligence communities in Ukraine and Israel have close and productive relations, and I hope that on the military level, Israel will now agree to sell Ukraine technologies and equipment that can assist it in the war against Russia.”

FALL OF SYRIA’S BASHAR ASSAD IS STRATEGIC BLOW TO IRAN AND RUSSIA, EXPERTS SAY

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during their meeting on Sept. 12, 2019, in Sochi, Russia. (Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)

Rebekah Koffler, strategic military intelligence analyst and author of “Putin’s Playbook,” said Israel’s primary concern should be its regional security, particularly in relation to Iran, and that the collapse of Assad’s regime and the weakening of Russia’s influence in Syria has not changed that. “As much as there is pressure for Israel to support Ukraine, strategically, Israel has more to gain by remaining neutral with Russia. Russia still holds significant leverage in the Middle East.”

“A stable relationship with Russia offers Israel a strategic advantage,” Koffler continued, “especially in managing the Iranian threat and maintaining influence with key regional actors like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey, where Putin has leverage. Ukraine, on the other hand, offers little to Israel. While Ukraine is highly dependent on Western support, Israel does not derive significant benefits from this relationship.”

Daniel Vajdich, a Republican foreign policy expert and president of Yorktown Solutions, which advises Ukrainian state entities, highlighted that Israel is now in a stronger position to support Ukraine, given the changing security landscape. “Israel’s strategic focus has always been on its own security, especially after 14 months of multifront war. But now, there is certainly room for more support for Ukraine,” Vajdich explained. “Israel’s defense capabilities, especially in air defense, are exceptional, and Ukraine could benefit significantly from that expertise.”

The 24th Mechanised Brigade fires toward Russian positions near Chasiv Yar town, in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Aug. 20, 2024. (Oleg Petrasiuk/Ukrainian 24th Mechanised Brigade via AP)

Vajdich also pointed out that a shifting geopolitical landscape could provide Israel with more freedom to support Ukraine without facing the same level of external pressure. “The Trump administration likely won’t pressure Israel to increase its support for Ukraine, unlike the Biden administration,” he said. “However, more U.S. support to Israel, particularly under a future Trump administration, could allow Israel to feel more secure in providing additional help to Ukraine. Israel will likely continue to prioritize its security, but the space for collaboration with Ukraine is expanding.”

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“The Israelis always said that Russia was their neighbor to the north, and therefore they had to be cautious not to threaten the relationship,” Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel said, “But now their neighbor has left – the excuse lost its validity. We hope that Israel will reconsider its refusal to deliver defensive weapons and technology to Ukraine.”

Efrat Lachter is an investigative reporter and war correspondent. Her work has taken her to 40 countries, including Ukraine, Russia, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, and Afghanistan. She is a recipient of the 2024 Knight-Wallace Fellowship for Journalism. Lachter can be followed on X @efratlachter.