Taiwan on edge after Pope Francis’s death, closely watching Vatican-China relations

close Video

Mourners pay respects to Pope Francis ahead of funeral

Mourners from around the world pay their respects to Pope Francis at St. Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City. Dr. Tim O’Donnell joins ‘Fox & Friends First’ to weigh in ahead of the funeral. 

KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan – Some in Taiwan are watching with growing unease as the Catholic Church prepares to elect a new leader following the death of Pope Francis. The Holy See is the only European state that maintains diplomatic relations with Taipei, but some fear the growing ties between the Vatican and Beijing could change things.

Taiwan is home to fewer than 300,000 Catholics. By contrast, estimates put the number of Catholics in communist China at anywhere between eight and 12 million, with another 390,000 in Chinese-ruled Hong Kong. Despite these figures, the Holy See continues to recognize Taiwan as the sole “China.”

After Pope Francis’ death, Taiwan’s President William Lai quickly said he planned to attend the funeral. A short time later, however, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that former Vice President and devout Catholic Chen Chien-jen will be Taiwan’s envoy. 

POPE FRANCIS EMPHASIZED CATHOLICISM GLOBALLY, REACHED BEYOND US, EUROPE INTO IMPOVERISHED NATIONS

This picture taken on August 10, 2018, shows worshippers lining up to receive holy communion during a Catholic mass in the Holy Spirit Church in Yanshui, about an hour’s drive from the southern city of Tainan. With a cross rising from a red pagoda roof and two lion statues guarding the entrance, a Catholic church in southern Taiwan could easily be mistaken for one of the ubiquitous temples dotting the island. There are more than 1,000 churches across the island, but the Holy Spirit Church is particularly unique.  (SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images)

According to Taipei-based lawyer and political risk analyst Ross Feingold, Taiwan will be disappointed that President Lai will miss this gathering of world leaders. “The precedent exists for Taiwan’s president to attend a pope’s funeral. In 2005, then-President Chen Shui-bian attended John Paul II’s funeral, so,” he claimed, “it’s safe to assume President Lai’s team inquired whether Lai could attend Francis’ funeral, and equally safe to assume the Holy See’s response was a negative one.”

After Pope Francis took office in 2013, the Vatican began to build ties with Beijing. In 2018, it signed a controversial agreement with China on the appointment of bishops. The deal—renewed and extended several times—gives both sides input on bishop selection, an attempt to bridge the divide between China’s state-run Catholic Church and an underground church loyal to Rome. Vatican officials insist the agreement is pastoral, not political. Still, for Taiwan, it is seen as a warning sign.

This picture taken on August 10, 2018, shows a motorcyclist riding past the Holy Spirit Church in Yanshui, about an hour’s drive from the southern city of Tainan.  (SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images)

China, which cut ties with the Holy See in 1951, demands that all countries end diplomatic relations with Taiwan before establishing relations with Beijing. Taiwan’s official allies now number but 12, and the Holy See is its most symbolically significant diplomatic partner.

But Thomas Tu, a Vatican diplomacy expert at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, told Fox News Digital that fears of an imminent switch are overblown. “This isn’t just about politics—it’s about the global Catholic mission,” Tu said. “The Vatican has survived empires. It’s patient.” Tu cited the Vatican’s relationship with Vietnam as evidence of pragmatic patience. China and Vietnam do not have formal ties, but the Vatican maintains a high-level religious representative there.

FIRST PHOTOS RELEASED OF POPE FRANCIS IN HIS CASKET; FUNERAL SET FOR SATURDAY

People attend a Christmas mass at the Xishiku Catholic Church in Beijing on December 24, 2023.  (Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Image)

Pope Francis believed that engagement with China, however imperfect, is preferable to nothing. Francis was the first pope to fly through Chinese airspace and famously sent greetings to President Xi Jinping in 2014. On his visit to Mongolia in 2023, the pontiff also sent a “warm greeting to the noble Chinese people.”

Each overture to Beijing has drawn criticism from within the Church, particularly from outspoken China critics, such as 93-year-old retired Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong, who was arrested in 2022 after China imposed a National Security Law that criminalized almost every form of dissent in that supposedly autonomous special administrative region. Zen’s passport was recently returned to him by authorities so he could attend the pope’s funeral.

Zen and others view any warming of ties with Beijing as kowtowing to an officially atheist regime.

Pope Francis greets the people of China as he concludes Mass in the Hun Theatre on September 3, 2023, in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.  (Vatican Media via Vatican Pool/Getty Images)

Since 1957, Beijing, via its Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association, has kept a tight leash on millions of Chinese Catholics. Pope Francis accepted some compromises with China, but the Vatican wants autonomy in spiritual matters, which may require a miracle to accomplish under China’s one-party dictatorship.

Some observers suggest that Beijing may eventually allow more space for the Vatican, but any formal deal would require the Holy See to sever ties with Taiwan, a non-negotiable prerequisite for China. 

CLICK HERE TO GET TO THE FOX NEWS APP

With a new pope being elected in the next month, some in Taiwan are worried about a shift, but few experts believe the next pontiff will make any hasty decisions. “There’s no rush,” said Dr. Chang Ching, a Senior Research Fellow of the ROC Society for Strategic Studies, “The Vatican knows how to wait, and China isn’t willing yet to grant the Chinese Catholic community the same privileges Catholics enjoy in most other nations. This seventy-plus-year rift is just a tiny moment in the long history of the Church and the even longer history of Chinese civilization.”

Eryk Michael Smith is a Taiwan-based correspondent who since 2007, has worked both as a broadcast journalist for the island’s only English-language radio station, ICRT, as well as with numerous other publications and local news outlets. Smith’s journalism focuses on Taiwan-China relations, local politics, as well as science and technology developments in the greater China region. He is based in Taiwan’s largest southern city, Kaohsiung. He can be followed @ErykSmithTaiwan