Trump leads Biden in battleground state that hasn’t voted Republican since 2004: AARP poll

Former President Trump maintains his lead in a key battleground state in the 2024 presidential election, according to a new poll.

A survey published Tuesday by the AARP finds Trump with a 3-percentage point lead over President Biden in Nevada. Trump is favored by 48% of likely Silver State voters compared to 45% who said they would vote for Biden if the election were held today. 

That narrow lead extends to a more comfortable 7 points if independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included. Kennedy has not yet qualified for the Nevada ballot and state Democrats have filed a lawsuit that challenges his eligibility.

Trump’s lead is more pronounced among voters over 50, who said they prefer the presumptive Republican nominee to Biden, a Democrat, by double digits (53%-41%). The silver lining for Biden is that he maintains a lead among Hispanic voters in that age demographic, 51% to Trump’s 41%, according to the AARP poll.

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Former President Trump and President Biden (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

“We have a huge Hispanic population, so that vote will matter,” said Maria Moore, AARP Nevada state director. Hispanics make up 22% of the eligible voter population in Nevada, according to a 2022 Pew Research Center analysis cited in the AARP’s news release. 

Nevada is one of several closely watched states that could very well determine who holds the White House next year. The battleground state has not gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, when President George W. Bush ran for re-election. But Biden only won the state narrowly in 2020, with 50.06% of the vote to Trump’s 47.67% vote share. 

A Fox News poll released earlier this month found Biden trailed Trump by a 5-point margin. 

Republicans are optimistic they can flip the state after current GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo unseated Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak in the 2022 election.

Lombardo recently argued that Nevada voters are dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the economy in a New York Times guest essay.

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Former President Trump points during a campaign rally at Sunset Park in Las Vegas on June 9, 2024. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)

“If recent polling on Democratic candidates in Nevada is any indication, and I think it is, Mr. Biden has a big problem to overcome, because after three and a half years, Nevadans are losing confidence in him to do something meaningful about inflation and housing and are left with the feeling that he just doesn’t get it,” he wrote. 

The AARP survey found only 40% of voters age 50-plus mostly approve of Biden’s job performance, while 59% disapprove. Reflecting on Trump’s first term in office, 56% of voters over 50 approve of what he did as president, while 43% disapprove. 

The survey also asked about Nevada’s U.S. Senate race, in which Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., seeks re-election against Republican challenger Sam Brown, a wounded combat veteran. The poll found Rosen leading Brown among voters of all ages 47% to 42%, bolstered by Hispanic support for Rosen.

“It’s the margin among Hispanic and Latino voters that’s putting Rosen in the lead,” pollster Bob Ward said. 

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Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo, left, wrote an op-ed in the New York Times arguing the economy was driving Nevadans to support Trump over President Biden. (Getty Images)

The top-ranking issues for Nevada voters were the economy, rising food prices, immigration and border security, according to the AARP survey. 

Impact Research pollster Jeff Liszt suggested split-ticket voters will be the deciding factor in the upcoming election.

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“When you look at the older voters, 43% are straight-ticket Republican and 35% are straight-ticket Democrat, but 23% are splitting their tickets,” Liszt told AARP. “[That’s] an indicator that there are more voters up for grabs right now than there may have been in recent elections.”

Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward partnered with Democratic firm Impact Research to conduct the survey, which included 1,368 likely voters interviewed between June 12 and 18. The poll’s margin of error is 4%.