Vulnerable Sen Tammy Baldwin loses ground to GOP candidate in Wisconsin, consecutive polls show

Several newly released polls have illustrated a tightening Senate race in Wisconsin, where Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., is fighting for her seat in a state that could very likely swing for former President Trump in the presidential race. 

Likely voters in Wisconsin split 51% for Baldwin and 48% for Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde in a new Marist poll on Thursday. A new Quinnipiac poll similarly showed the Democrat leading Hovde by only a few points, 51% to 47%, and an AARP poll showed Baldwin at 50% and the Republican candidate at 47%, with 3% undecided.

In the AARP’s survey of voters over 50, Hovde managed to take the lead from Baldwin, beating her 50% to 49%. 

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Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde will face off in the election in November. (Getty Images)

As days dwindle down to the general election, with less than seven weeks to go, Hovde has continued to increase his name identification, and voters have increasingly started to lock in on their chosen candidates. The latest polls have subsequently demonstrated a close race for Baldwin’s Senate seat, despite her status as an incumbent. 

In prior polling from May by Quinnipiac, Hovde posted 42% to Baldwin’s 54%, with a double-digit gap between the two. By early August, he had climbed to 44% to the incumbent Democrat’s 51%, per a New York Times/ Siena College poll. The latest data continue this trend as Hovde appears to gain ground among Wisconsin voters. 

The Senate race is considered “lean Democrat” by top political handicapper the Cook Political Report, despite the shrinking gap. 

The close polling from three different organizations also comes as Baldwin faces increased scrutiny over her yearslong relationship with a private wealth adviser at Morgan Stanley, Maria Brisbane. She isn’t bound by Senate rules to disclose any information regarding Brisbane’s clients or finances because the two are not married. 

Hovde and groups backing the Republican have pointed to Baldwin’s partner’s position as a potential conflict of interest and called for it to be investigated. Baldwin was prompted to release her own ad, slamming the charges as “complete lie(s).” 

Notably, Wisconsin is a toss-up state in the Fox News Power Rankings forecast of the presidential election, giving neither Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris a particular edge in the battle. This holds weight in the Senate race, too, as split-ticket voting becomes increasingly rare. 

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Hovde is backed by former President Trump. (John Hart/Wisconsin State Journal via AP, file)

“Wisconsin is often a pivotal state in the Electoral College count,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, whose new poll showed Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%. “2024 is no exception and is shaping up to be a tight contest.”

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Baldwin has lost some ground in recent polls. (Drew Angerer)

During the 2016 election, every single Senate race went in the same direction as their state voted in the presidential contest. In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, was the only occurrence of a Senate race diverging from the state’s presidential choice. Collins has established herself in the upper chamber as a bona fide moderate, to which many attribute her victory. 

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Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are both vying to win toss-up Wisconsin. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images.)

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In Baldwin’s case, she voted with President Biden more than 99% of the time in the beginning of the 118th Congress, according to FiveThirtyEight. Collins’ separation from her Republican Party colleagues was far more prominent than Baldwin’s from the Democrats, which was virtually nonexistent. 

Hovde also boasts the backing of Trump, who could boost the Republican Senate candidate’s campaign if he manages to beat Harris in Wisconsin.

The latest Quinnipiac poll was conducted from Sept. 12-16 using randomized phone calls with live interviewers of 1,075 likely voters in Wisconsin. It had a margin of error of ±3.0 percentage points. The AARP poll was taken from Sept. 11–14, with live interviewers speaking to 1,052 likely voters. The margin of error for the poll of Wisconsin voters was ±4.0% and ±3.5% for the sample of voters over 50 years old. The Marist poll surveyed 1,431 likely voters in the state during Sept. 12-17 over the phone, by text and online. The margin of error was ±3.6%. 

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