Wisconsin Senate race shifts to ‘toss up’ by handicapper as Tammy Baldwin fights for re-election

A top political handicapper shifted its rating for the Wisconsin Senate race on Tuesday to “Toss Up” with less than a month until Election Day. 

The race in Wisconsin, a pivotal battleground state in both the presidential and Senate matches, was most recently considered “Lean Democrat” by the Cook Political Report.

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Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde will face off in the election in November. (Getty Images)

The handicapper cited changes in polling in recent days, with Hovde appearing to close the gap with Baldwin. But Cook also referred to private polling from both campaigns, which it said each showed the race within the margins of error. 

A source familiar confirmed to Fox News Digital that Baldwin’s internal polling shows such a race. 

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Baldwin is a two-term senator. (Drew Angerer)

In response to the rating shift, Hovde spokesman Zach Bannon said, “Sen. Baldwin’s radical agenda has sparked record high inflation, created chaos [at] the southern border, and made our communities less safe. Eric Hovde is going to win because the people of Wisconsin are ready for change.”

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Hovde has started to close the polling gap with Baldwin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

“After 25 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin has become the typical D.C. politician, voting in lockstep with the failed Biden agenda and hiding her Wall Street partner’s stock trades from her constituents. Wisconsinites are ready for change, and Eric Hovde has the momentum,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokesman Tate Mitchell in a statement.

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A woman dons a cheese hat with an American flag on it in Wisconsin. (Reuters)

The latest Marquette Law School poll showed Baldwin winning the battle, 51% to Hovde’s 45%. The survey interviewed 882 registered voters over Sept. 18-26. The poll’s margin of error was +/-4.4 percentage points. 

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The most recent Fox News Power Rankings from last month had Wisconsin at “Leans Dem.”

With Cook’s ratings change, Wisconsin joins other “Toss Up” Senate races in Ohio and Michigan. 

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.