Democrats hold a major advantage in four of this year’s crucial battleground Senate races, but President Biden isn’t getting that same good news, according to a series of New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College polls released early Monday.
The Democratic incumbents, or likely nominees, in the Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Senate races all lead their respective GOP opponents, or hypothetical opponents, with less than six months to go until the general election in November, but the president trails former President Trump in almost every single battleground state, often by a significant margin.
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, 46%-41% in Pennsylvania, while, in Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 49%-40%.
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Republican Senate candidates, from left, Eric Hovde of Wisconsin, Sam Brown of Nevada, Kari Lake of Arizona and Pennsylvania’s Dave McCormick (Reuters/Getty Images)
The races in Arizona and Nevada show a closer margin, with likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake 45%-41%, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leading Republican Sam Brown 40%-38%, respectively. The poll did not include Brown’s primary challenger, former U.S. Ambassador to Iceland Dr. Jeffrey Gunter, who is expected to pose a formidable challenge for the GOP nomination.
Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup in nearly every battleground state, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and Michigan. However, in Wisconsin, Biden held a 47%-45% lead.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s inclusion in the polls largely boosts Trump to a bigger advantage. In Arizona, the former president garners 42% of the vote to Biden’s 33% and Kennedy’s 10%, and in Nevada, 41% support Trump, 27% Biden and 12% Kennedy.
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Former President Trump, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and President Biden (Getty Images)
Trump and Biden tie in Wisconsin at 38% with Kennedy at 9%, and Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania grows by four points, 40%-36%, with Kennedy at 10%.
Biden also trails Trump in Georgia, 39%-31%, with Kennedy at 9%, and in Michigan, 38%-36%, with Kennedy also at 9%.
Minority groups that have traditionally supported Democrats appear to be trending away from Biden and toward either Trump or Kennedy. Collectively, Hispanic voters in the battleground states are split at 31% between Biden and Trump, but 14% say they support Kennedy.
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The U.S. Senate on April 7, 2022, in Washington, D.C. (Senate Television via AP)
Biden still holds a significant advantage with Black voters in the same states with 49% support, but 14% say they are backing Trump and 11% Kennedy.
Just 36% of voters in battleground states say they approve of the job Biden is doing as president, with 60% disapproving.
Trump also edges Biden when it comes to favorability – 45% say they view the former president favorably and 53% unfavorably. Just 40% say they view Biden favorably, with 59% viewing him unfavorably.
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Senate races in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan and Maryland are also expected to be pickup opportunities for Republicans in November. Considering the Democrats’ one-seat margin in the Senate, Republicans just need to win two of the races and hold their other seats up for re-election in order to win control of the chamber.
Republicans will only need to win one of the races to control the chamber if Trump wins the White House, since his vice president would serve as the tie-breaking vote.
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