Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Trump in the crucial battleground state of Michigan, a new poll finds.
With just 41 days until the presidential election on Nov. 5, Democratic candidate Harris is up three points over Republican Trump, 48% to 45%, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters in the Great Lake State.
The poll was taken Sept. 16-19, after the first and possibly only debate between Harris and Trump, and after a second assassination attempt against Trump on Sept. 15. It has a 4.4% margin of error.
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Harris speaks at a Labor Day event at Northwestern High School in Detroit, Michigan, September 2, 2024. (JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
Six third-party candidates will also appear on the Michigan ballot, including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign last month and endorsed Trump. Though each polled under one percent, any of them could play spoiler if the margin between the two major party candidates tightens, according to David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
“If the Kamala Harris margin shrinks to a 1-point lead, the entire state hinges on the fringes of the Michigan ballot,” he told USA Today. “The behavior of third-party voters — people who are mocked for wasting their votes — could make the difference if they rotate to either Harris or Trump.”
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Trump attends a town hall meeting moderated by Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders at the Dort Financial Center in Flint, Michigan, on September 17, 2024. (JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
Kennedy has sought to remove his name from the ballot in several states since throwing his support behind Trump, including in Michigan. However, he is fighting to place his name on the ballot in New York, where he was disqualified, in an apparent attempt to pull support from Harris in the reliably blue state.
Last month, the Michigan Supreme Court, in a split decision, reversed a lower court order that would have removed Kennedy’s name from the ballot. The Michigan Secretary of State’s office has said minor party candidates cannot withdraw from the race once they have gained ballot access. Kennedy has appealed his case to the U.S. 6th Circuit Court of Appeals.
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The major party candidates for president: Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and former President Donald Trump. (Getty Images)
Michigan, along with fellow Rust Belt states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are together known as the “Blue Wall.” The trio have voted for the same presidential candidate, usually a Democrat, in every election since 1988. The exception was in 2016, when Trump captured all three states in his upset victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Four years later, President Biden defeated Trump in Michigan and the other Blue Wall states, also winning battleground states Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in the 2020 presidential election.
The Trump and Harris campaigns have prioritized these Blue Wall states in campaign stops throughout the summer.
The USA Today/Suffolk University poll found that Harris leads Trump by three points, 48% to 45%, in bellwether Kent County, which is home to Grand Rapids and surrounding suburbs. Trump won the county in 2016, 48% to Hillary Clinton’s 45%, while Biden prevailed there in 2020, winning 52% of the vote to Trump’s 46%.
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There is a significant gender gap between the major party candidates, with Harris leading among women 56% to Trump’s 37% support. Men preter Trump over Harris by a margin of 54% to 39%, according to the survey.
Trump leads slightly with independent voters, 42% to 41%.
Fox News Digital’s Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.