It’s long been said that Congress is a lot like school.
What’s the first thing they do in school? Take attendance.
That is one thing which they usually don’t do in Congress.
But they might next year.
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Figuring out who is present and accounted for and who is out will emerge as one of the most dramatic daily events on Capitol Hill.
It is always about the math on Capitol Hill.
But the 119th Congress will really be about the math.
Every day in the House will hinge on who’s sick. Who has a parent/teacher conference. Whose plane was delayed due to snow. Who is just playing hooky and isn’t reliable. Who was giving a speech downtown, got caught in traffic and just didn’t make it back in time. Whose kid is starring in the school play. Whose aunt died.
President Trump and House Republicans have big plans for their 2025 legislative agenda. But the miniscule size of the GOP majority could temper those expectations on a daily basis.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) speaks during a press conference along with other House Republican leaders at the U.S. Capitol in Washington DC, United States on November 19, 2024. (Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
It will be interesting to see what Republicans can execute.
Republicans will likely begin the new year with a 219-215 majority. So 434 seats. There is one vacancy as former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned. That’s a margin of four seats. But it in reality, it means the GOP majority can only tolerate one Republican defector on each roll call vote without needing help from the other side. One Republican “nay” is 218-216. But two Republican rebels produces a 217-217 tie. By rule, ties lose in the House.
But the beginning of the new Congress on January 3 could represent the Halycon days for the House Republican Conference.
Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Michael Waltz, R-Fla., intend to resign in January to join the Trump Administration. Stefanik is up for United Nations Ambassador and requires confirmation for that post. The President-elect tapped Waltz to serve as National Security Advisor. That position is not subject to Senate confirmation. So the Republican majority will dwindle to 217-215. At that point, Republicans can’t lose any votes to pass their agenda.
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That is a problem for House Republicans who regularly had a squadron of defectors – ranging from keeping the government open to even impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. This could even spell problems for House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., returning to the Speaker’s suite. Johnson must win an outright majority of all House members voting when the new Congress convenes on January 3 to become Speaker. He’ll have a bit of a cushion when the new Congress starts. But it won’t be much. House Republicans still suffer from political PTSD after the 15 rounds it took to elect former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., early last year.
Yes. There will be special elections to fill the seats of Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has already called a special election for the Gaetz seat for April 1.
You can’t make this stuff up.
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) waves on stage on the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)
The other special elections are months away because Stefanik and Waltz haven’t resigned yet. In fact, if Stefanik is confirmed and resigns in late January, it may be May before there’s a special election in her seat – based on New York law and discretion afforded New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D).
The results in special elections sometimes produce “special” results. The usual electorate periodically stays home and the opposite party captures those seats in off-cycle elections. So, even though these are “Republican” seats, there’s no guarantee that Republicans will automatically prevail.
But if things go according to plan, Republicans will have those seats back in a few months, with a comparatively robust 220-215 majority. That means Republicans can lose up to two votes on any major issue.
But there are always absences. Always resignations.
And this isn’t limited to the Republican side of the aisle.
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There have long been concerns about the health and attendance of 79-year-old Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee. Scott faced criticism earlier this year over a lack of public appearances and interviews.
76-year-old Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., is the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. Grijalva vowed that this term would be his last after suffering from cancer. The illness sidelined Grijalva for months. He missed more than 300 roll call votes on the floor between February and this fall and did not conduct interviews.
Late Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., Bill Pascrell, D-N.J. and Donald Payne Jr., D-N.J., were all in office when they passed away this year. Late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., died in 2023.
Democrats make a lot of noise right now about the agenda of President-elect Trump. It will be incumbent on Democrats to have full attendance to oppose Republicans and generally make life miserable for the majority. But Democrats can only do that if they show up. All the time.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., conducts his weekly news conference in the Capitol Visitor Center on Thursday, May 23, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Such was the case when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., had the votes of every House Democrat on each roll call for Speaker in January and October of last year. Only Rep. David Trone, D-Md., missed a couple of votes because he underwent a surgical procedure. But Trone returned to Capitol Hill later that evening to vote.
Rep. Al Green, D-Tex., was hospitalized this past February. But Green came to the Capitol in a wheelchair in February to help torpedo the initial effort to impeach Mayorkas. Republicans had three defectors on their side. Green’s vote fresh from a hospital gurney forced the GOP effort to fail on the floor and try again.
One factor which was a challenge for the GOP was the health of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. Scalise was diagnosed with cancer last year and was out the first part of 2023. Scalise has now recovered. But his absence hamstrung the GOP on big votes like the initial Mayorkas impeachment.
Unfortunately – and inevitably – there will be absences due to health. And God forbid, death. Rarely does a Congress pass without the death of a lawmaker – sometimes unforeseen. Late Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., and two aides died in a traffic accident during the summer of 2022.
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So listen for the attendance bells in the House next year. Check the weather forecast and the flight schedule at Reagan National Airport. Better look at Waze if they’re flying into Dulles. See if the flu or another round of COVID burns through Congress.
Yes. Understanding whether someone is for or against a given bill or amendment is always important in Congress. But what supersedes that is whether they’re actually present.